A Model System to Assess the Effect to Planktonic Predator-Prey Dynamics Under Varying Microplastic Concentrations
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Abstract
Microplastics, small plastic debris known to affect a wide range of organisms, may affect the growth rate of prey populations and subsequently influence predator populations. However, the mechanisms underlying their effects on predator and prey population dynamics have not been fully explored. This study aimed to evaluate these effects in planktonic organisms employing a modeling approach with parameters derived from the ciliates, Paramecium and Didinium. The Independent Response model was parameterized to include a function describing the prey growth rate's response to increasing microplastic concentrations. By varying the rate (a) at which prey growth responded to different microplastic concentrations and running the model to steady states, the study revealed significant shifts in predator-prey dynamics. Low microplastic levels maintained constant predator and prey populations, while intermediate levels caused a gradual decline in predators, leading to extinction at high microplastic concentrations. Consequently, prey populations increased to their carrying capacity. This phase shift, from top-down control by predators to prey populations reaching carrying capacity, could have profound implications for food web dynamics. The existence of alternative steady states in the population was influenced by both the rate (a) of prey response and microplastic concentration. Furthermore, the sigmoidal relationship between prey growth rate and microplastic levels also had a substantial influence on the modeled dynamics of the predator-prey system. The model suggests that in the natural ecosystems, the removal of predators from the system due to perturbations can cause a decrease in top-down control, thereby causing an increase in prey populations to carrying capacity and an alteration of the overall food web dynamics.
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