VALIDATION OF THE POOLED COHORT RISK SCORE AND THE THAI CV RISK SCORE FOR ATHEROSCLEROSIS-CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE (ASCVD) RISK PREDICTION AT WARINCHAMRAB HOSPITAL

Authors

  • Peerawat Jinatongthai Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Ubon Ratchathani University
  • Wannisa Dongtai Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Ubon Ratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani
  • Boonthida Aonsuebsai Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Ubon Ratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani
  • Possawat Towongsricharoen Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Ubon Ratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani
  • Thanatcha Songmuang Pharmacy department, Warinchamrab Hospital, Ubon Ratchathani
  • Sawaeng Watcharathanakij Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Ubon Ratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani
  • Surakit Nathisuwan Faculty of Pharmacy, Mahidol University, Bangkok

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.69598/tbps.16.2.71-81

Keywords:

risk score, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, Pooled cohort risk score, Thai CV risk score, Thailand

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease is a major health problem in Thailand. Predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease developing in patients can help to guide the formulation of treatment plans. This study aimed to validate the use of the Pooled Cohort risk score and the Thai CV risk score, in patients at Warinchamrap hospital. We conducted a retrospective cohort study on patients aged 40-70 years for whom electronic medical records are held at Warinchamrap hospital, covering the years 1997 to 2017. The discrimination and calibration of the risk scores were assessed using c-index and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, respectively. The results of this study found that 100% of the 1,171 patients investigated were predicted to be at low risk when assessed by the Pooled Cohort Risk score (risk scores <7.5%) and 93.65% at low risk when assessed by the Thai CV risk score (risk score <10%). Both risk scores showed fair discrimination (0.613 [95% CI, 0.562-0.665] and 0.614 [95% CI, 0.564-0.663], respectively) and good calibration (X2=9.334 [p-value 0.315] and 12.973 [p-value 0.113], respectively). In conclusion, the Pooled Cohort risk score and Thai CV risk score can be used to predict ASCVD risk in patients.

References

Ministry of Public Health. Strategy and Planning Division. Public health statistics A.D.2016) [Internet]. Nonthaburi: The Ministry; 2016 [cited 2018 Jan 25]. Available from: http://bps.moph.go.th/new_bps/sites/default/files/health_strategy2559.pdf

Grundy SM, Stone NJ, Bailey AL, Beam C, Birtcher KK, Blumenthal RS, et al. 2018 AHA/ACC/AACVPR/AAPA/ABC/ACPM/ADA/AGS/APhA/ASPC/NLA/PCNA guideline on the management of blood cholesterol: a report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines. Circulation. 2019;139(25):e1082-143.

Lloyd-Jones DM. Strengths and limitations of the ASCVD risk score and what should go in the risk discussion [Internet]. Washington (DC): American College of Cardiology; 2014 [cited 2018 Jan 25]. Available from: https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/articles/2014/08/25/14/48/strengths-and-limitations-of-the-ascvd-risk-score-and-what-should-go-in-the-risk-discussion

Muntner P, Colantonio LD, Cushman M, Goff DC Jr, Howard G, Howard VJ, et al. Validation of the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort risk equations. JAMA. 2014;311(14):1406-15.

Chia YC, Lim HM, Ching SM. Validation of the pooled cohort risk score in an Asian population - a retrospective cohort study. BMC Cardiovasc Disord. 2014;14:163.

Zhang Z, Gillespie C, Bowman B, Yang Q. Prediction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease mortality in a nationally representative cohort using a set of risk factors from pooled cohort risk equations. PLoS One. 2017;12(4):e0175822.

Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital. Thai CV risk score. [Internet]. 2015 Jan 1 [cited 2018 Jan 25]; Available from:

https://med.mahidol.ac.th/cardio_vascular_risk/thai_cv_risk_score/.Thai.

Lwanga SK, Lemeshow S. Sample size determination in health studies: a practical manual. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1991.

Lemeshow S, Hosmer DW Jr. A review of goodness of fit statistics for use in the development of logistic regression models. Am J Epidemiol. 1982;115(1):92-106.

Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiol. 1982;143(1):29-36.

Mandrekar JN. Receiver operating characteristic curve in diagnostic test assessment. J Thorac Oncol. 2010;5(9):1315-6.

YOUDEN WJ. Index for rating diagnostic tests. Cancer. 1950;3:32-5.

Goff DC Jr, Lloyd-Jones DM, Bennett G, Coady S, D'Agostino RB, Gibbons R, et al. 2013 ACC/AHA guideline on the assessment of cardiovascular risk: a report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines. Circulation. 2014;129(25 Suppl 2):S49-73.

Downloads

Published

2021-07-27

How to Cite

Jinatongthai, P., Dongtai, W. ., Aonsuebsai, B. ., Towongsricharoen, P. ., Songmuang, T. ., Watcharathanakij, S. ., & Nathisuwan, S. . (2021). VALIDATION OF THE POOLED COHORT RISK SCORE AND THE THAI CV RISK SCORE FOR ATHEROSCLEROSIS-CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE (ASCVD) RISK PREDICTION AT WARINCHAMRAB HOSPITAL. Thai Bulletin of Pharmaceutical Sciences, 16(2), 71–81. https://doi.org/10.69598/tbps.16.2.71-81

Issue

Vol. 16 No. 2 (2021): JULY-DECEMBER 2021

Section

Original Research Articles

License

All articles published and information contained in this journal such as text, graphics, logos and images is copyrighted by and proprietary to the Thai Bulletin of Pharmaceutical Sciences, and may not be reproduced in whole or in part by persons, organizations, or corporations other than the Thai Bulletin of Pharmaceutical Sciences and the authors without prior written permission.