A Comparison of Forecasting Methods for Wind Speed at an Altitude of 120 Meters in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province
Keywords:
wind speed, forecasting model, Box-Jenkins, exponential smoothingAbstract
This research aimed to compare two methods of forecasting wind speed: Box-Jenkins method and Winters’ exponential smoothing method at an altitude of 120 meters in Pak Phanang district, Nakhon Si Thammarat province. Hourly wind speed was gathered from Research Center in Energy and Environment, Thaksin University. The criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error were used for comparing the suitability of the forecasting model. The study indicated that the Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method was the most appropriate. Therefore, this forecasting method can be used to predict wind speed at an altitude of 120 meters in Pak Phanang district, Nakhon Si Thammarat province and can be used to predict the amount of electricity that will be produced in the future.
References
Bielecki, M.F., Kemper, J.J. and Acker, T.L. 2014. Statistical Characterization of Errors in Wind Power Forecasting. Northern Arizona University, U.S.A.
Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G.M. and Reinsel, G.C. 1994. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 3rd ed. Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
Keerativibool, W. and Mahileh, J. 2011. Forecasting Model of Wind Speed Along the Coast of Songkhla Province. Journal of Energy Research 8(3): 63-72. (in Thai)
Keerativibool, W. and Mahileh, J. 2013. Forecasting Model of Wind Speed Along the Coast of Tha Sala District Nakhon Si Thammarat Province. KKU Research Journal 18(1): 32-50. (in Thai)
Keerativibool, W., Waewsak, J. and Kanjnasamranwong, P. 2011. Short-Term Forecast of Wind Speed at Chana District, Songkhla Province Thailand, pp. 343-350. In Proceedings of the 2011 International Conference on Alternative Energy in Developing Countries and Emerging Economies. Thaksin University, Songkhla. (in Thai)
Ket-iam, S. 2005. Forecasting Technique. 2nd ed. Thaksin University, Songkhla. (in Thai)
Manmin, M. 2006. Time Series and Forecasting. Foreprinting, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Mauch, B.K. 2012. Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids. Ph.D. dissertation of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University.
Promdee, Ch. 2016. Electric Power Generation of Savonius Wind Turbine with Double Wind Tunnels. Master in Electrical and Computer Engineering Thesis, Mahasarakham University. (in Thai)
Thongyai, N. and Assawamartbunlue, K. 2017. Wind Atlas Simulation to Find Wind Potential Area to Generate Electric Power of the Chanthaburi and Trat Provinces, Thailand, pp. 737-745. In Proceedings of the 31st Conference of Mechanical Engineering Network of Thailand. Phukhaongam Resort, Thailand. (in Thai)
Vasilji, J., Sarajcev, P. and Jakus, D. 2015. Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering 9(2): 138-143.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The content and information in the article published in Journal of Rajamangala University of Technology Srivijaya It is the opinion and responsibility of the author of the article. The editorial journals do not need to agree. Or share any responsibility.
