A Comparison of Forecasting Methods for Wind Speed at an Altitude of 120 Meters in Nakhon Si Thammarat Province
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Abstract
This research aimed to compare two methods of forecasting wind speed: Box-Jenkins method and Winters’ exponential smoothing method at an altitude of 120 meters in Pak Phanang district, Nakhon Si Thammarat province. Hourly wind speed was gathered from Research Center in Energy and Environment, Thaksin University. The criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error were used for comparing the suitability of the forecasting model. The study indicated that the Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method was the most appropriate. Therefore, this forecasting method can be used to predict wind speed at an altitude of 120 meters in Pak Phanang district, Nakhon Si Thammarat province and can be used to predict the amount of electricity that will be produced in the future.
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