A Model for Forecasting the Export Value of Orchids in Thailand by Time Factor Only

Abstract

The objective of this study is to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the export values of orchids in Thailand via the use of statistical method. The monthly average data, which were gathered from the website of the Office of Agricultural Economics during January 2011 to January 2022 of 133 months were divided into 2 datasets. The first dataset, which consisted of 121 months from January 2011 to January 2021 was used for constructing the forecasting models via the use of 8 mathematical models, namely, 1) Box-Jenkins method, 2) Holt’s exponential smoothing method, 3) Brown’s exponential smoothing method, 4) damped trend exponential smoothing method, 5) simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, 6) Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, 7) Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method, and 8) combining forecasts method. The second dataset, which consisted of 12 months from February 2021 to January 2022 was used for comparing the accuracy of the forecasting models via the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. The results indicated that the most accurate method was the combining forecasts method.