Development of a Forecasting Model of Paddy Price in the Northeastern Region of Thailand

Abstract

The purposes of this paper were: 1) to generate a forecasting model of paddy price in the northeastern region of Thailand; and 2) to forecast the one-year trend in advance of the paddy price. The data used in this study were the monthly prices of the paddy in the northeastern area from January 2005 to December 2021 (204 months). The data was obtained from the database on the Bank of Thailand website of prices of important agricultural products sold in the northeastern region. The Box-Jenkins method and the exponential smoothing method were generated using the root mean square error as the criteria for choosing the appropriate model. The results showed that the Box-Jenkins method was appropriate for forecasting the Jasmine paddy price and the short-grain glutinous grain price which were ARIMA(0,1,1)(1,0,1)[12] and ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,1)[12] respectively, while the exponential smoothing method was suitable for forecasting the long-grain glutinous grain price. The one-year ahead forecasting trend of the Jasmine paddy price and the short-grain glutinous grain price would be steady while the price of long-grain glutinous grain would increase until August and decrease after that.