การพยากรณ์ยอดขายของข้าวฮางงอก: กรณีศึกษากลุ่มวิสาหกิจ ชุมชนบ้านน้อยจอมศรี จังหวัดสกลนคร

Abstract

The current germinated brown rice production needs for both domestic and foreign markets. It is also one of the most famous agricultural product in Sakon Nakhon province. It has established a Community Enterprise of germinated brown rice producer based in Sakon Nakhon province, by receiving the government support to promote the Community revenue and preserve local wisdom. The community enterprises Noi-chomsi there are issues such as rice production lower than demand, inventory management is not appropriate because the production according to order only. There is no provision for advance production because they are believed it will affect the rice not tasty and another reason is they are storing not enough materials. So it is not able to produce the goods at the time of demand. Spoil the opportunity to sell products from these issues. Researchers have an interest in the applied the seven techniques of forecasting that are simple moving average, weight-moving average, exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, linear regression, Seasonal and Winter. The research focus on the least of Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percent Error, to fix the problem by studying the 3 years selling germinated brown rice include rice berry, homnil rice, jasmine rice and red jasmine rice. It found that the appropriate technique for them is a method of seasonal index forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percent Error of this is 15.61 to as low as possible and data can be defined the Safety Stock of rice berry, homnil rice, jasmine rice and red jasmine rice on average per day are 274.46, 607.43, 549.83 and 640.55 kg, respectively.