Forecasting Model for Para Rubber’s Export Sales
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Abstract
In this paper, monthly export values of para rubber are investigated using the Box-Jenkins method. To find the optimal predicting model, 12-year data, from January 2000 to December 2011, are used to analyze. Finally,the suitable mathematical model is seasonal ARIMA that use the analysis of time-series from the lowest level of the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). The best model is seasonal ARIMA (1,1,1) 1,1,012 .
Keywords: Mathematical model, Box-Jenkins Method, Exporting of Para rubber
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