Modelling and Forecasting Daily Rubber Smoked Sheet Prices

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Published: Nov 12, 2018
Keywords:
Time series, Transfer function method, Neutral networks, Box and Jenkins method, Rubber smoked sheet (RSS3) prices, Back propagation

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P. Chatchaipun
Department of Applied Statistics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, Thailand
W. Atthirawong*
Department of Applied Statistics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang, Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract

This paper presents the comparison between transfer function method and neutral networks for predicting rubber smoked sheet prices. The two procedures are based on time series data extracted from 2001 to 2003. The accuracy of two forecasting models is evaluated using (1) root mean squared error: RMSE and (2) mean absolute percentage error: MAPE. The results indicate that the traditional statistical approach has a potential to forecast rubber smoked sheet prices compared to neural networks model. In addition, the future directions are also discussed in the paper.


Keywords:  Time series, Transfer function method, Neutral networks, Box and Jenkins method, Rubber smoked sheet (RSS3) prices, Back propagation


Corresponding author: E-mail: walailak_ut@yahoo.com , me_porntip@yahoo.com

Article Details

Issue
Vol. 5 No. 1 (2005)
Section
Original Research Articles

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