Time Series Analysis and Forecast of Influenza Cases for Different Age Groups in Phitsanulok Province, Northern Thailand
Article Sidebar
Published:
Apr 7, 2020
Keywords:
Influenza; time series; forecast; seasonal ARIMA; surveillance
Main Article Content
Abstract
Influenza is still a major problem in Thailand where the incidence varies among age groups. This descriptive research using retrospective data collection aimed to describe the distribution and synchrony, and to forecast Influenza cases in different age groups in Phitsanulok province, northern Thailand. Influenza cases from January 2009 to December 2016 were obtained from R506, Bureau of Epidemiology. Temporal distribution was visually interpreted from line and decomposed graphs. The synchrony between all pairs of age groups was analyzed using Pearson correlation. The 2017 Influenza cases were forecasted using the seasonal ARIMA model in RStudio version 1.1.419. The results showed that trend of Influenza cases for the three age groups: less than 25 years, 25-64 years, and 65 years and older, slightly decreased from 2011 to 2015 and dramatically increased in 2016. The two peaks were observed, i.e. major peak in September and minor peak in February. The cyclic pattern likely observed major peak in two consecutive years for every five years. All pairs of data series co-varied over time. The best models to forecast Influenza cases were seasonal ARIMA (1,0,1)(0,1,1)12, seasonal ARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 and seasonal ARIMA (1,0,1)(1,1,1)12 for age less than 25 years, age 25-64 years and age 65 years and older with the MAPE 15.54, 17. 27 and 15.61 respectively. There were 1,698 forecasted cases in age less than 25 years, followed by 1,478 cases in age 65 years and older and 471 cases in age 25-64 years. The major peak in February and minor peak in September were observed in all age groups. In 2017, the forecasted cases were lower than the reported cases in all data series, except for age 65 years and older.
Keywords: Influenza; time series; forecast; seasonal ARIMA; surveillance
Keywords: Influenza; time series; forecast; seasonal ARIMA; surveillance
*Corresponding author: Tel.: +66 23 54 85 43 Fax: +66 23 54 85 43 ext. 4777
E-mail: [email protected]
Article Details
Issue
Section
Original Research Articles
Copyright Transfer Statement
The copyright of this article is transferred to Current Applied Science and Technology journal with effect if and when the article is accepted for publication. The copyright transfer covers the exclusive right to reproduce and distribute the article, including reprints, translations, photographic reproductions, electronic form (offline, online) or any other reproductions of similar nature.
The author warrants that this contribution is original and that he/she has full power to make this grant. The author signs for and accepts responsibility for releasing this material on behalf of any and all co-authors.
Here is the link for download: Copyright transfer form.pdf
References
[1] Punpanich, W. and Chotpitayasunondh, T., 2012. A review on the clinical spectrum and natural history of human Influenza. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 16 (10), e714-e723.
[2] World Health Organization, 2018. Influenza (Seasonal). [online] Available at: https://www. who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/Influenza-(seasonal).
[3] Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, 2013. Annual Epidemiological Surveillance Report 2013.
[4] Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, 2014. Annual Epidemiological Surveillance Report 2014.
[5] Paget, J., Spreeuwenberg, P., Charu, V., Taylor, R.J., Iuliano, A.D., Bresee, J., Simonsen, L., Viboud, C., & Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams, 2019. Global mortality associated with seasonal Influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project. Journal of global health, 9(2), 020421. https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.09.020421.
[6] Chadsuthi, S., Iamsirithaworn, S., Triampo, W. and Modchang, C., 2015. Modeling seasonal Influenza transmission and its association with climate factors in Thailand using time-series and ARIMAX analyses. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 436495. doi:10.1155/2015/436495.
[7] Song, X., Xiao, J., Deng, J., Kang, Q., Zhang, Y. and Xu, J., 2016. Time series analysis of Influenza incidence in Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2011. Medicine, 95(26), e3929. doi:10.1097/MD.0000000000003929.
[8] Yang, L., Chan, KH., Suen, L.K., Chan, K.P., Wang, X., Cao, P., He, D., Peiris, J.S.M. and Wong, C.M., 2015. Age-specific epidemic waves of Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in a subtropical city. Science Report, 5,10390. doi: 10.1038/srep10390.
[9] Hoyle, F. and Wickramasinghe, N.C., 1990. Sunspots and Influenza. Nature, 343:304. https://doi.org/10.1038/343304a0.
[10] Tapping, K.F., Mathias, R.G. and Surkan, D.L., 2001. Influenza pandemics and solar activity. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases, 12, 61-62.
[11] Webster, R.G., Bean, W.J., Gorman, O.T., Chambers, T.M. and Kawaoka, Y.,1992. Evolution and ecology of Influenza A viruses. Microbiological Reviews, 56 (1), 152-179.
[12] Dimitrov B.D., and Babayev, E.S., 2015. Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976-2000. Epidemiology & Infection, 143 (1),13-22.
[13] Moura, F.E., 2010. Influenza in the tropics. Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases. 23(5), 415-420. doi: 10.1097/QCO.0b013e32833cc955.
[14] Xu, C., Thompson, M.G. and Cowling, B.J., 2017. Influenza vaccination in tropical and subtropical areas. Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 5 (12), 920-922.
[15] Tamerius, J.D., Shaman, J., Alonso, W.J., Bloom-Feshbach, K., Uejio, C.K., Comrie, A. and Viboud, C., 2013. Environmental predictors of seasonal Influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates. PLoS Pathogens, 9(3), e1003194. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat. 1003194.
[16] Suthachana, S., Kaewnorkkao, W., Suangtho, P., Sayumpurujinun, S. and Kongyu, S., 2012 Forecasting the situation of Influenza in Thailand, 2012. In: Bureau of Epidemiology, Department Disease Control, Minstry of Public Health, Workshop Conference in Analyzed and forecasting. Bangkok, Thailand, 12-14 September 2012. Bangkok: Ministry of Public Health.
[17] Prachayangprecha, S., Makkoch, J., Suwannakarn, K., Vichaiwattana, P., Korkong, S., Theamboonlers, A. and Poovorawan, Y., 2013. Epidemiology of seasonal Influenza in Bangkok between 2009 and 2012. The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries, 7 (10), 734-740
[18] Prachayangprecha, S., Vichaiwattana, P., Korkong, S., Felber, J. A. and Poovorawan, Y., 2015. Influenza activity in Thailand and occurrence in different climates. SpringerPlus, 4, 356. doi: 10.1186/s40064-015-1149-6.
[19] Tamerius, J., Nelson, M.I., Zhou, S.Z., Viboud, C., Miller, M.A. and Alonso, W.J., 2011. Global Influenza seasonality: reconciling patterns across temperate and tropical regions. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119 (4), 439-445.
[20] Chowell, G., Viboud, C., Munayco, C.V., Gómez, J., Simonsen, L., Miller, M.A., Tamerius, J., Fiestas, V., Halsey, E.S. and Laguna-Torres, V.A., 2011. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza pandemic in Peru. PloS One, 6(6), e21287. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021287.
[21] Lowen, A.C., and Steel, J., 2014. Roles of humidity and temperature in shaping Influenza seasonality. Journal of Virology, 88 (14), 7692-7695. doi:10.1128/JVI.03544-13.
[22] Liu, Z., Zhang, J., Zhang, Y., Lao, J., Liu, Y., Wang, H. and Jiang, B., 2019. Effects and interaction of meteorological factors on Influenza: Based on the surveillance data in Shaoyang, China. Environmental Research, 172, 326-332.
[23] Eccles, R., 2002. An explanation for the seasonality of acute upper respiratory tract viral infections. Acta Oto-Laryngologica, 122, 2, 183-191.
[24] Mossong, J., Hens, N., Jit, M., Beutels, P., Auranen, K., Mikolajczyk, R., Massari, M., Salmaso, S., Tomba, G.S., Wallinga, J., Heijne, J., Sadkowska-Todys, M., Rosinska, M. and Edmunds, W.J., 2008. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Medicine, 25, 5(3), e74. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074.
[25] Schmidt-Ott, R., Schwehm, M. and Eichner, M., 2016. Influence of social contact patterns and demographic factors on Influenza simulation results. BMC Infectious Diseases, 16(1), 646. doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1981-5.
[26] Saunders-Hastings, P., Crispo, J.A.G., Sikora, L. and Krewski, D., 2017. Effectiveness of personal protective measures in reducing pandemic Influenza transmission: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Epidemics, 20, 1-20. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.04.003.
[27] Karageorgopoulos, D.E., Vouloumanou, E.K., Korbila, I.P., Kapaskelis, A. and Falagas, M.E., 2011. Age distribution of cases of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic Influenza in comparison with seasonal Influenza. PloS One, 6(7), e21690. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021690.
[28] Mertz, D., Kim, T.H., Johnstone, J., Lam, P.P., Science, M., Kuster, S.P., Fadel, S.A., Tran, D., Fernandez, E., Bhatnagar, N. and Loeb, M., 2013. Populations at risk for severe or complicated Influenza illness: systematic review and meta-analysis. British Medical Journal, 347, f5061. doi:10.1136/bmj.f5061.
[29] Suthachana, S. and Saritapirak, N., 2018. Event-based surveillance of Influenza outbreak in Thailand during 2016-2018. Weekly Epidemiological Surveillance Report, 49, 37. [In Thai]
[30] Payaprom, Y. and Suwannakeeree, W., 2018. Promoting Influenza vaccination among the risk population. Journal of Nursing and Health Sciences, 12, 13-23 [In Thai]
[31] Sato, A.P.S., Antunes, J.L.F., Moura, A.R.F., Andrade, F.B., Duarte, Y.A.O. and Lebrao, L., 2015. Factors associated to vaccination against Influenza among elderly in a large Brazilian metropolis. PLOS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0123840
[2] World Health Organization, 2018. Influenza (Seasonal). [online] Available at: https://www. who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/Influenza-(seasonal).
[3] Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, 2013. Annual Epidemiological Surveillance Report 2013.
[4] Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, 2014. Annual Epidemiological Surveillance Report 2014.
[5] Paget, J., Spreeuwenberg, P., Charu, V., Taylor, R.J., Iuliano, A.D., Bresee, J., Simonsen, L., Viboud, C., & Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams, 2019. Global mortality associated with seasonal Influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project. Journal of global health, 9(2), 020421. https://doi.org/10.7189/jogh.09.020421.
[6] Chadsuthi, S., Iamsirithaworn, S., Triampo, W. and Modchang, C., 2015. Modeling seasonal Influenza transmission and its association with climate factors in Thailand using time-series and ARIMAX analyses. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, 436495. doi:10.1155/2015/436495.
[7] Song, X., Xiao, J., Deng, J., Kang, Q., Zhang, Y. and Xu, J., 2016. Time series analysis of Influenza incidence in Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2011. Medicine, 95(26), e3929. doi:10.1097/MD.0000000000003929.
[8] Yang, L., Chan, KH., Suen, L.K., Chan, K.P., Wang, X., Cao, P., He, D., Peiris, J.S.M. and Wong, C.M., 2015. Age-specific epidemic waves of Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in a subtropical city. Science Report, 5,10390. doi: 10.1038/srep10390.
[9] Hoyle, F. and Wickramasinghe, N.C., 1990. Sunspots and Influenza. Nature, 343:304. https://doi.org/10.1038/343304a0.
[10] Tapping, K.F., Mathias, R.G. and Surkan, D.L., 2001. Influenza pandemics and solar activity. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases, 12, 61-62.
[11] Webster, R.G., Bean, W.J., Gorman, O.T., Chambers, T.M. and Kawaoka, Y.,1992. Evolution and ecology of Influenza A viruses. Microbiological Reviews, 56 (1), 152-179.
[12] Dimitrov B.D., and Babayev, E.S., 2015. Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976-2000. Epidemiology & Infection, 143 (1),13-22.
[13] Moura, F.E., 2010. Influenza in the tropics. Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases. 23(5), 415-420. doi: 10.1097/QCO.0b013e32833cc955.
[14] Xu, C., Thompson, M.G. and Cowling, B.J., 2017. Influenza vaccination in tropical and subtropical areas. Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 5 (12), 920-922.
[15] Tamerius, J.D., Shaman, J., Alonso, W.J., Bloom-Feshbach, K., Uejio, C.K., Comrie, A. and Viboud, C., 2013. Environmental predictors of seasonal Influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates. PLoS Pathogens, 9(3), e1003194. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat. 1003194.
[16] Suthachana, S., Kaewnorkkao, W., Suangtho, P., Sayumpurujinun, S. and Kongyu, S., 2012 Forecasting the situation of Influenza in Thailand, 2012. In: Bureau of Epidemiology, Department Disease Control, Minstry of Public Health, Workshop Conference in Analyzed and forecasting. Bangkok, Thailand, 12-14 September 2012. Bangkok: Ministry of Public Health.
[17] Prachayangprecha, S., Makkoch, J., Suwannakarn, K., Vichaiwattana, P., Korkong, S., Theamboonlers, A. and Poovorawan, Y., 2013. Epidemiology of seasonal Influenza in Bangkok between 2009 and 2012. The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries, 7 (10), 734-740
[18] Prachayangprecha, S., Vichaiwattana, P., Korkong, S., Felber, J. A. and Poovorawan, Y., 2015. Influenza activity in Thailand and occurrence in different climates. SpringerPlus, 4, 356. doi: 10.1186/s40064-015-1149-6.
[19] Tamerius, J., Nelson, M.I., Zhou, S.Z., Viboud, C., Miller, M.A. and Alonso, W.J., 2011. Global Influenza seasonality: reconciling patterns across temperate and tropical regions. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119 (4), 439-445.
[20] Chowell, G., Viboud, C., Munayco, C.V., Gómez, J., Simonsen, L., Miller, M.A., Tamerius, J., Fiestas, V., Halsey, E.S. and Laguna-Torres, V.A., 2011. Spatial and temporal characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza pandemic in Peru. PloS One, 6(6), e21287. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021287.
[21] Lowen, A.C., and Steel, J., 2014. Roles of humidity and temperature in shaping Influenza seasonality. Journal of Virology, 88 (14), 7692-7695. doi:10.1128/JVI.03544-13.
[22] Liu, Z., Zhang, J., Zhang, Y., Lao, J., Liu, Y., Wang, H. and Jiang, B., 2019. Effects and interaction of meteorological factors on Influenza: Based on the surveillance data in Shaoyang, China. Environmental Research, 172, 326-332.
[23] Eccles, R., 2002. An explanation for the seasonality of acute upper respiratory tract viral infections. Acta Oto-Laryngologica, 122, 2, 183-191.
[24] Mossong, J., Hens, N., Jit, M., Beutels, P., Auranen, K., Mikolajczyk, R., Massari, M., Salmaso, S., Tomba, G.S., Wallinga, J., Heijne, J., Sadkowska-Todys, M., Rosinska, M. and Edmunds, W.J., 2008. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Medicine, 25, 5(3), e74. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074.
[25] Schmidt-Ott, R., Schwehm, M. and Eichner, M., 2016. Influence of social contact patterns and demographic factors on Influenza simulation results. BMC Infectious Diseases, 16(1), 646. doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1981-5.
[26] Saunders-Hastings, P., Crispo, J.A.G., Sikora, L. and Krewski, D., 2017. Effectiveness of personal protective measures in reducing pandemic Influenza transmission: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Epidemics, 20, 1-20. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.04.003.
[27] Karageorgopoulos, D.E., Vouloumanou, E.K., Korbila, I.P., Kapaskelis, A. and Falagas, M.E., 2011. Age distribution of cases of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic Influenza in comparison with seasonal Influenza. PloS One, 6(7), e21690. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0021690.
[28] Mertz, D., Kim, T.H., Johnstone, J., Lam, P.P., Science, M., Kuster, S.P., Fadel, S.A., Tran, D., Fernandez, E., Bhatnagar, N. and Loeb, M., 2013. Populations at risk for severe or complicated Influenza illness: systematic review and meta-analysis. British Medical Journal, 347, f5061. doi:10.1136/bmj.f5061.
[29] Suthachana, S. and Saritapirak, N., 2018. Event-based surveillance of Influenza outbreak in Thailand during 2016-2018. Weekly Epidemiological Surveillance Report, 49, 37. [In Thai]
[30] Payaprom, Y. and Suwannakeeree, W., 2018. Promoting Influenza vaccination among the risk population. Journal of Nursing and Health Sciences, 12, 13-23 [In Thai]
[31] Sato, A.P.S., Antunes, J.L.F., Moura, A.R.F., Andrade, F.B., Duarte, Y.A.O. and Lebrao, L., 2015. Factors associated to vaccination against Influenza among elderly in a large Brazilian metropolis. PLOS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0123840