Forecasting Model for Export Value of Squid and Products

Abstract

The objective of this study was to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the export value of squid and products. The data was gathered from the website of the Office of Agricultural Economics from January 2011 to November 2018. It consisted of 95 values and was divided into 2 sets. The first set had 84 values from January 2011 to December 2017 for constructing the forecasting model by Box-Jenkins method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method, and combined forecasting method. The second set had 11 values from January to November 2018 for comparing forecast accuracy via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE). Research findings indicated that the most accurate method is the combined forecasting method (MAPE = 8.9626, RMSE = 109,522,371) and the forecasting equation is

 represent the single forecasts at time t from Box-Jenkins method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, and Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method, respectively.