Forecasting the Average Monthly Retail Price of Diesel in Bangkok
Keywords:
diesel, forecast, Box-Jenkins, exponential smoothingAbstract
This research aims to forecast diesel prices using the average monthly retail diesel prices in Bangkok obtained from the Bank of Thailand website from January 2003 to October 2022, totaling 238 months. The researcher divided the time series into two sets. The first set comprised 235 months from January 2003 to July 2022. It was used to create a forecasting model using four statistical methods, namely, the Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, and the damped trend exponential smoothing method. The second set comprised the last 3 months, from August to October 2022. It was used to compare the accuracy of the forecast models based on the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The study found that the forecasting model using Holt’s exponential smoothing method was the most accurate, with MAPE = 0.3053 and RMSE = 0.1158. The model was as follows:
where = 1 represented August 2022.
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