Forecasting Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO2) from Industry Sector in Thailand
Keywords:
Forecasting, Double Exponential Smoothing Method, Moving Average Method, CO2Abstract
The purposes of this research were to examine and compare the forecasting methods for carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) from the industry sector in Thailand. The data were gathered from Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy between January 2017 and October 2020, and 46 values were used and separated into two groups. The first group contained 36 values between January 2017 and December 2019 for studying and comparing the most appropriate forecasting methods by (1) Moving Average Method, (2) Trend Analysis Method, (3) Single Exponential Smoothing Method, (4) Double Exponential Smoothing Method, (5) Triple Exponential Smoothing Method, and (6) Decomposition Method. The suitable forecasting method was chosen by considering the smallest value of Mean Absolute Percent Error and Mean Absolute Deviation. Then the selected suitable method was used to determine the most suitable forecasting period by the second group which contained 10 values from January 2020 to October 2020 for finding the most suitable predictive timing. The result indicated that Double Exponential Smoothing Method was the best and most suitable forecasting 3 months in advance.
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