Integrated Analysis of Climatic, Topographic and Geospatial Factors Affecting Durian Yield in Chanthaburi Province, Thailand
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Abstract
Durian (Durio zibethinus) cultivation in Chanthaburi Province plays a pivotal role in Thailand’s fruit economy, yet it faces increasing vulnerability due to climate variability and topographic constraints. This study aimed to investigate the relationships between climatic factors and durian yield through an integrated analytical framework incorporating statistical analysis, time-series forecasting, and geospatial techniques. Climatic variables including temperature, rainfall, humidity, and solar radiation were collected from meteorological stations across the province from 2014 to 2024. Agricultural data were retrieved from the Office of Agricultural Economics, including cultivated area and total yield per district. Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression analyses were employed to quantify the influence of climatic parameters on yield. Results indicated that minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall, and perennial area were significant predictors. The regression model achieved high explanatory power (R² = 0.935), while NDVI-based spatial analysis from Sentinel-2 imagery revealed a strong negative correlation (r = –0.920) between vegetation health and cultivated area and a weak positive correlation with yield (r = 0.263), suggesting ecological limitations to expansion under climate stress. Forecasting results for the period 2025–2030 indicated a gradual decline in durian yield, despite the continued expansion of cultivated areas. These findings underscore the complex interplay between climatic variability and spatial cultivation patterns in determining durian productivity. Furthermore, the results highlight the effectiveness of integrating statistical modeling and geospatial analysis as a robust framework for monitoring, evaluating, and supporting data-driven decision-making in agricultural systems.
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