Model for Forecasting Wind Direction at an Altitude of 120 meters in Nikhom Kham Soi District, Mukdahan Province

Abstract

The aim of this research is to construct seven forecasting models of wind direction at an altitude of 120 meters in Nikhom Kham Soi District, Mukdahan Province, namely, Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method (additive), Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, and Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method. Hourly time series of wind direction were gathered from the center for energy and environment research, Thaksin university during May 1 to July 1, 2015 of 1,465 observations. The criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error were used for comparing the suitability of the forecasting model. The study indicated that Box-Jenkins method was the most appropriate.