Predicting the Suitable Amount of Water Drainage for Agriculture Area of Kwai Noi Bamrung Dan Dam by Using Grey Model

Abstract

The objective of this research was to develop a grey model for predicting suitable amount of water drainage for agriculture area under the Khwai Noi Bamrung Dan Dam. Three prediction grey models were used GM(1,1), GM(2,1) and grey Verhulst. The data used in the study were the drainage data of the Khwai Noi Bamrung Dan Dam during the cultivation seasonal of monthly information, during 2013-2020. We started by arranging data on the amount of drainage water of the Khwai Noi Bamrung Dan Dam to create a graph. Then, the computed results were used to compare the predictive models including the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and the Mean Square Error (MSE) which the minimal value is considered as the most accurate model. The results of the study showed that the GM(2,1) model was the most accurate model, followed by GM(1,1) and the grey Verhulst model, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that the model GM(2,1) should be selected for predicting suitable amount of water drainage for agriculture area under the Khwai Noi Bamrung Dan Dam. It was also found that in order to increase the accuracy of the model, other relevant factors such as the amount of water in the dam and rainfall should be considered to develop the forecasting models.