Forecasting of plastic packaging waste in Thailand using economic index data application
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Abstract
Population growth and urbanization used to be the only indicators of waste quantity in the past. This research forecasted plastic packaging waste with data from 2010 to 2022 using statistical methods for analysis and aimed to study 47 economic indexes that correlate with and influence the quantity of plastic packaging waste. The quantity of municipal solid waste is constantly increasing by approximately 25 million tons per year, with the quantity of plastic packaging waste having a similar proportion generated each year at 7.91–11.79%. This study observed that the quantity of plastic packaging waste had a Pearson correlation value with an economic index of more than 0.4 (R>0.4) at a significance level of 0.05. The economic index could additionally explain 52.2% of the changes in the quantity of plastic packaging waste, including the wholesale index for food, retail sales index for beverages, and sales index without a store, using the stepwise multiple regression method. The accurate forecasting of plastic packaging waste for use in the planning and design of management systems averaged 78.57%, including the fact that it could be forecasted simultaneously with forecasting economic index changes.
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