Monitoring and Predicting Land Use Tendency Using Land Change Modeler at Doi Suthep-Pui National Park, Chiang Mai Province

Abstract

The objectives of this study were the identification of land use change patterns in Doi Suthep-Pui National Park during 2009-2013 and 2013-2017 from Thai Chote satellite imagery. The land use tendency in 2021 was also predicted using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Land Change Modeler (LCM). Land use was classified based on environmental drivers affecting the land use changes which included slope, water bodies, transportation route, communities, and built-up area, distance from road, and distance from water bodies.

            It was found that land use patterns of Doi Suthep-Pui National Park in 2017 were divided between forest, fruit tree/perennial, integrated farming, communities and built-up area, water bodies, and miscellaneous area as 85.48%, 9.77%, 0.91%, 1.61%, 0.11%, and 2.12%, respectively. The overall accuracy of land use classification in form of a confusion matrix was 91.91%. The total land use change, during 2009-2013, was 8.24 sq.km. The forest area, integrated farming, communities, and built-up area, and water bodies increased by 32.89%, 3.03%, 13.47%, and 0.61%, respectively. Meanwhile, miscellaneous and fruit tree/perennial decreased by 7.29% and 42.71%, respectively. The total change in land use, during 2013-2017, was 17.46 sq.km. The fruit tree/perennial, integrated farming, communities and built-up area, and water bodies increased by 46.45%, 0.74%, 2.69%, and 0.12%, respectively. Meanwhile forest and miscellaneous area decreased by 44.16% and 5.84%, respectively.

            Based on the predicted land use changes in 2021, the total land use change during 2017-2021 was 9.70 sq.km. The fruit tree/perennial, integrated farming, communities and built-up area, miscellaneous, and water bodies increased by 38.35%, 3.09%, 4.54%, 3.81%, and 0.10%, respectively. Meanwhile, the forest area decreased by 50.11%. By overlaying the political boundaries and village locations on the predicted land use change during 2017-2021, it was found that the most risky change in forest area to agricultural area was located along the buffer zone between Doi Suthep-Pui National Park and surrounding communities. These included Ban Nong Bua Luang and Ban Iag in Tambon San Pa Yang, Ban Mae Ram (Nong Hoi) and Ban Thung Tan in Tambon Mae Ram, Ban Nong Hoi Kao, Ban Nong Hoi (Sam Lang), Ban Pong Yaeng Nai, Ban Pong Yaeng Nok, Ban Muang Kham and Ban Maesa Noi in Tambon Pong Yaeng, Ban Pang Yang, Ban Huai Luek and Ban Kao Due in Tambon Ban Pong. Therefore, smart patrol activities are important and needed to increase the efficiency of deterring to prevent the offense of forestry