Assessment of Forest Encroachment in the Lower Mae Cheam Watershed, Chiang Mai Province

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the physical variables influencing forest encroachment and the risk assessment of forest encroachment in the lower Mae Cheam Watershed, Chiang Mai Province. To elaborate, the study will analyze the   logistic regression based on remote sensing techniques and geographic information systems which result in the interpretation of aerial photos between 2002 and imageries from ThaiChote satellite and 2016 in order to identify 2 types of land use: forest areas and non-forest areas. Further, this study will evaluate the accuracy of the interpretation as well as the quality of translation results to be used to monitor forest changes occurring between 2002 and 2016 and analysis. Risk of forest intrusion by logistic regression analysis. To analyze the physical variables that influence forest encroachment and to develop risk maps for forest intrusion under GIS. The study indicates that there are 4 factors influencing forest encroachment, including distance from road, distance from community, slope and aspect. The study also shows that the low and very row risk factor of forest encroachment is covers 1,098.43 Square Kilometers or 56.99 percent of the study area, while the high risk and very high risk of forest encroachment mark at 164.01 Square Kilometers or 8.51 percent of the study area. Further, the sensitivity analysis of the ROC Curve model shows that the area under the curve was 74.2 percent which indicates that model provides the accuracy of prediction model provides that the overall accuracy of the prediction. Hence, the result of the study can be used to support the work in the relevant areas. In the planning of surveillance of areas prone to forest encroachment.