Effects of Climate Variability and Land Use Changes on Streamflow in Mae Soi Sub-Watershed, Lampang Province
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The effects of climate variability and land use changes on streamflow was carried out in Mae Soi sub-watershed, Lampang province. The objectives were to find the land use changes and to predict land use. Using the CA-Markov Chain model, the streamflow was estimated and streamflow predicted under climate variability and greenhouse effect using the SWAT model (RCP 8.5), which is a hydrological process model. Hydrological limiting factors input into this model consisted of meteorological data (2007-2018), land use data in 2007 and 2018, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and soil data.
The predicted land use in 2029 indicated that relative to year 2018, the forest area would decrease by 6.30%, while the area under agriculture and water would increase by 20.17% and 32.85%, respectively, with changes in other land uses would only increase slightly. The model could be used to analyze the change in average annual streamflow resulting from climate variability and could be efficiently used to estimate the streamflow. Model calibration results for the data collected from W.17 station indicated to an RMSE between 0.223-0.227 and NSE between 0.893-0.897 in 2018 and 2029, using the same set of climate data. Average annual streamflow was estimated at 168.71 and 170.87 mcm for 24.66% and 24.97% of rainfall respectively, while the ratio of dry to wet flow of 36.15% and 34.68%, respectively. Water yield was estimated at 0.23 mcm km-2, with the streamflow in 2029 being 1.26% higher than that in 2018.
Prediction of streamflow under climate variability, greenhouse effect (RCP 8.5), and land use changes indicated that the average annual streamflow in 2050 and 2613 would be 344.86 and 372.65 mcm, the annual streamflow 39.12% and 40.39% of rainfall, respectively, higher than that in 2018 by 56.69% and 59.92%, respectively, with the ratio of dry to wet flow being 50.81% and 57.33%, respectively.
Article Details
ข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) ขอรับรองว่า ต้นฉบับที่เสนอมานี้ยังไม่เคยได้รับการตีพิมพ์และไม่ได้อยู่ในระหว่างกระบวนการพิจารณาตีพิมพ์ลงในวารสารหรือสิ่งตีพิมพ์อื่นใด ข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) ยอมรับหลักเกณฑ์และเงื่อนไขการพิจารณาต้นฉบับ ทั้งยินยอมให้กองบรรณาธิการมีสิทธิ์พิจารณาและตรวจแก้ต้นฉบับได้ตามที่เห็นสมควร พร้อมนี้ขอมอบลิขสิทธิ์ผลงานที่ได้รับการตีพิมพ์ให้แก่วารสารวนศาสตร์ คณะวนศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์ กรณีมีการฟ้องร้องเรื่องการละเมิดลิขสิทธิ์เกี่ยวกับภาพ กราฟ ข้อความส่วนใดส่วนหนึ่ง หรือ ข้อคิดเห็นที่ปรากฏในผลงาน ให้เป็นความรับผิดชอบของข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) แต่เพียงฝ่ายเดียว และหากข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) ประสงค์ถอนบทความในระหว่างกระบวนการพิจารณาของทางวารสาร ข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) ยินดีรับผิดชอบค่าใช้จ่ายทั้งหมดที่เกิดขึ้นในกระบวนการพิจารณาบทความนั้น”
References
Chaitham, W. 1987. Hydrology. 2nd Ed. Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen. (in Thai)
Department of Water Resources. 2005. Study and Survey on Hydrological Station Design 25 Watershed of Thailand Project. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Department of Water Resources. 2006. Integrated Water Resources Management Plan Project in the Wang Watershed. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Department of Water Resources. 2018. Meteorology Data and Rain Station. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Institute of Water and Agricultural Resources Information (Public Organization). 2012. Data Collection and Analysis data Project of 25 Basin and Flood Drought Model, Wang River Basins. Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Land Development Department. 2010. Soil Group Data. Soil Resources Survey and Research Division, Land Development Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Land Development Department. 2018. Land Use Data. Land Policy and Planning Division, Land Development Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Mishra, S.K. and V.P. Singh. 2003. Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) Methodology. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
Prueksawan, M. and S. Nimma. 1999. The Influence of La Nina Events on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Thailand. Meteorological Department Ministry of Transport, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Ruangphanit, N. 2014. Watershed Management. 4th ed. Department of Conservation, Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok. (in Thai)
Royal Irrigation Department. 2018. Rainfall Data and Rain Station. Available Source: https://www.hydro-1.net/main/3-RAIN.php, May 25, 2018. (in Thai)
Sangkhathananon, P., C. Chotamonsak and P. Dhanasin. 2018. Performance of SWAT hydrologic model for runoff simulation in Wang River Basin. The Journal of King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok 28(4): 869-880.
Tangtham, N. 2006. Watershed Management and Environment System Modeling. Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University, Bangkok. (in Thai)
The Meteorological Department. 2018a. Weather station in Thailand. Ministry of Information and CommunicationTechnology. Bangkok. (in Thai)
The Meteorological Department. 2018b. Tropical storm “Bebinca”. Available Source: https://www.thaiwater.net/current/2018/bebinca/bebinca2018.html, April 20, 2019. (in Thai)
The National Center for Atmospheric Research. 2011. Visualize Possible Temperature and Precipitation Changes. Available Source: gisclimatechange.ucar, April 10, 2019. (in Thai)
Tonsiri, S., W. Arunpraparut and W. Khunrattanasiri. 2018. Application of CA-Markov model to predict land use changes in Khao Soi Dao wildlife sanctuary, Chanthaburi province. Thai Journal of Forestry 37(2): 138-150. (in Thai)
Witthawatchutikul, P. and W. Jirasuktaveekul. 2001. Synthetic hydrograph of disturbed watershed. Journal of Thai Forestry Research 3(2): 130-138.