Main Article Content
This research objective is to find the appropriate forecast model for the export values from Thailand to China. The data is collected by Information and Communication Technology Center, Office of Permanent Secretary Ministry of Commerce, in cooperation with the Thai Customs Department, Ministry of Finance. The monthly data from January 2008 to December 2019, a total of 144 months, is divided into 2 sets. The first set has 132 months, from January 2008 to December 2018, is used to find the forecast models. The second set has 12 months, from January 2019 to December 2019, is used to check the accuracy of the forecast model. The forecast techniques employed in this research are Decomposition method, Smoothing method and Box–Jenkins method, then Mean Square Error (MSE) is used in selecting the appropriate forecasting model and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used to show the percentage of errors between the actual values and the forecast values. The result shows Triple Exponential Smoothing method is the appropriate forecast method for forecasting the export values from Thailand to China, which the MSE is 7,922,026.37 and the MAPE is 7.6556%
2. Information and Communication Technology Center, Office of Permanent Secretary Ministry of Commerce, 2019, Thailand export markets, Available Source: http://tradereport.moc.go.th/TradeThai.aspx, September 14, 2019. (in Thai)
3. Rungjindarat, N. and Thatsakaniwet, S., 2019, Time Series Forecasting with Classical Decomposition Method: Jasmine Rice Exportation of Thailand, Dusit Thani College. J. 13(2): 283–293. (in Thai)
4. Keerativibool, W., 2016, Forecasting Model for the Export Volumes of Cassava, Thaksin. J. 19(1): 31–43. (in Thai)
5. Choopradit, B. and Chaipitak, S., 2018, Forecasting Model for Mango Export Volumes of Thailand, Naresuan. J. Sci. Tech. 26(2): 74–85. (in Thai)
6. Ang, A. H-S. and Tang, W. H., 2017, Probability Conceots in Engineering : Emphasis on Applications to Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2nd Ed. John Wiley and sons, New York, 406 p.
7. Taesombat, S., 2006, Quantitative Forecasting, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, 487 p. (in Thai)
8. Box, G.E.P., Jenkins G.M., Reinsel G.C., 1994, Time series analysis forecasting and control, Prentice hall.
9. Harvey, M. and Arthur, U., 2004, Fitting Models to Biological Data Using Linear and Nonlinear Regression: A Practical Guide to Curve Fitting, Oxford University Press, New York, 352 p.