การเลือกตัวแบบพยากรณ์ราคากล้วยหอมทองที่เหมาะสม

Abstract

The objectives of this study were to construct and to select the appropriate forecasting model for the banana gold prices. The data gathered from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics during January 2005 to October 2017 of 154 values were used and divided into 2 sets. The first set had 144 values from January 2005 to December 2016 for constructing the forecasting models by Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, and combined forecasting method. The second set had 10 values from January to October 2017 for comparing accuracy of the forecasts via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. Research findings indicated that for all forecasting methods that had been studied, the most accurate method was the combined forecasting method, and the forecasting model was  where  and  represent the single forecasts at time t from Holt’s exponential smoothing method and damped trend exponential smoothing method, respectively.