Forecasting Sugarcane in Thailand with the AquaCrop Model

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Sugarcane is Thailand's primary cash crop but the yield per rai tends to decrease annually. The primary factor behind this decline is climate change. This study employed the AquaCrop model with the climate information to forecast sugarcane yields between 2030 and 2060.
Methodology: Agricultural data were collected from 2019 to 2021, serving as the baseline years for this study. Daily climate data encompassing six variables, namely rainfall, the highest and lowest temperatures, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation, were included. Additionally, future climate simulation data from PRECIS models, as well as other variables, were incorporated. We typically present emission scenario data (SRES) for two scenarios: conventional economic development (A2) and environmentally friendly development (B2). For statistical analysis, we applied the Least Significant Difference (LSD) approach at a 95% confidence level.
Main Results: Sugarcane production averaged 8.73 tons/rai during the baseline year. Subsequently, future projections were made. In comparison to the baseline year, the average yield in 2030 under the A2 and B2 scenarios is projected to be 8.60 and 8.70 tons/rai, respectively. By 2060, the average yield under the A2 and B2 scenarios is expected to reach 9.14 and 8.90 tons/rai respectively which increase from the baseline year. While the annual forecasted production remains relatively consistent in the A2 scenario for 2030, there is a significant increase in sugarcane productivity projected for 2060.
Conclusions: The forecasted data can serve as a guideline for adapting and planning farming practices, including land management for future sugarcane cultivation.