Agricultural Production Forecasting Using Planning Distribution Model (PDM):A Case Study of the Nam Oon Project

Abstract

For forecasting agricultural production to design cropping patterns and to utilize water effectively, a computerized agricultural production monitoring system named PDM was selected. The Nam Oon irrigation project was chosen as a case study. PDM was used for agricultural production forecasting in the Nam Oon project for ten cultivation seasons from the 1995 wet season to the 2000 dry season. The factors affecting flow in the canal and the agricultural production forecasting equation were also investigated. In the wet season, the highest efficiency was achieved when 60% of the command area was planted with rice because of high production comparing to planted area and lowest insufficient water area. In dry season, command area can be increased about 100% comparing to the past for rice, field crop, and farm crop area because of sufficient water. Water management index of early wet season was less than 1 and end of wet season was greater than 1 while in dry season was greater than 1. It means that planted area in dry season can be increased.