Decision-Making Model for Public Facility Project Development Under Uncertainty

Abstract

A water resource development project is studied with consideration to chronological structural change of water demand and supply, project cost, loss and penalty cost, time of implementation, time of service commencement, benefit, dicision-making process as well as probability of relevant events. The Bayesian dicision theory is asopted against uncertainty in planning data and it is revealed that both the single decision model and the continuous decision model give identical solution but the latter still indicates that project deferrent as the optimum solution as being affected by supplementary information available during the decision-making processes.