Hedging Policy for Reservoir System Operation: A Case Study of Mun Bon and Lam Chae Reservoirs

Abstract

A reservoir operation model of Mun Bon and Lam Chae reservoirs was developed to simulate reservoir operation using a hedging policy. A variety of common hedging forms was specified, including one-point hedging, two-point hedging and zone-based hedging. The simulated results were compared with the standard operating policy and probability based rule curve. The percentage of failure frequency, average annual shortage and end water availability were explored. Additionally, three reservoir performance indices, in terms of time-based reliability, vulnerability and resiliency were evaluated. The results indicated that two-point and three-point hedging performed well for all components of reservoir behavior compared with the standard operating policy and other hedging policies. The main outcome was that the risk of a water shortage during the simulation period could be reduced and some water could be retained for use in later periods.