Mathematical Modeling of the Dynamics of Lymphatic Filariasis in Phuket
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Abstract
For this study, the scientific research studied and develop the mathematical model for the impact of the epidemic of elephantiasis (Elephantiasis), a contagious disease caused by roundworms in the genus Filariodidae, and the consider getting of influenza vaccination. Finding the equilibrium point with both disease-free point and endemic equilibrium points with epidemic. In addition, this research article found the basic reproductive number (R0) by analyzing the stability equilibrium according to Routh-Hurwitz condition. When R0<1, the equilibrium point with no epidemic has a local stability value and when R0>1, the equilibrium point with epidemic has a local stability value. Then, the numerical solutions were derived by selecting parameters based on previous research on Elephantiasis outbreaks, with simulations of varying parameters reflecting different outbreak scenarios. The analysis revealed that at the disease-free equilibrium point, the basic reproductive number was R0= 0.65738, while at the endemic equilibrium point, R0= 287.355. The findings suggested that vaccination efforts significantly impact the spread of the disease. Thus, it is recommended to increase vaccination rates to control and prevent new infections, potentially reducing the number of cases or eliminating them in the future.
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