Application of Antecedent Precipitation Index and Topography Factor for Landslide Risk Area Assessment in Huai Mae U–Mong Luang Sub–watershed, Mae Hong Son Province, Thailand
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Abstract
A landslide is a natural disaster caused by the rapid movement of a mass of soil or rock down a slope. This phenomenon is influenced by slope and heavy rainfall, which act as catalysts for landslide occurrence. Currently, land use on steep slopes, particularly in high–quality watershed forests (classes 1 and 2), is an important issue. Primarily, such conversion involves the encroachment and clearing of upland forest areas for monoculture farming, especially for crops. Climate change and increased rainfall affect the amount of moisture and the area's ability to hold water. This study focused on the application of the antecedent precipitation index (API) for assessing landslide risk areas within the Huai Mae U–Mong Luang Sub–watershed, Mae Hong Son province, Thailand. Variations in the API were analyzed, with the findings being integrated with critical landslide risk factors using a weighted index factor derived from the pairwise comparison method. The assessment included the study of landslide risk under conditions of land use change and climate change, with verification conducted against the landslide assessment maps provided by the Department of Mineral Resources using the overall accuracy method.
Based on the results of the study, the maximum API reached 487.18 mm in September, while the minimum API was 10.90 mm in January, with an average API of 243.33 mm. Landslide risk areas at a very high level constituted 8.71% in August, followed by September and July at 2.04% and 1.43%, respectively. The verification accuracy was 90.91%. Projections for the year 2027 suggested that landslide risk areas will increase by 31.11% in upper agricultural lands, with the 5–year and 10–year rainfall return periods indicating increases in landslide risk areas by 8.71% and 8.44%, respectively. In conclusion, rainfall exerted a more significant influence on landslide occurrences than land use. Consequently, a balanced watershed management structure is imperative to mitigate the impacts of climate change and reduce landslide occurrences within the watershed.
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ข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) ขอรับรองว่า ต้นฉบับที่เสนอมานี้ยังไม่เคยได้รับการตีพิมพ์และไม่ได้อยู่ในระหว่างกระบวนการพิจารณาตีพิมพ์ลงในวารสารหรือสิ่งตีพิมพ์อื่นใด ข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) ยอมรับหลักเกณฑ์และเงื่อนไขการพิจารณาต้นฉบับ ทั้งยินยอมให้กองบรรณาธิการมีสิทธิ์พิจารณาและตรวจแก้ต้นฉบับได้ตามที่เห็นสมควร พร้อมนี้ขอมอบลิขสิทธิ์ผลงานที่ได้รับการตีพิมพ์ให้แก่วารสารวนศาสตร์ คณะวนศาสตร์ มหาวิทยาลัยเกษตรศาสตร์ กรณีมีการฟ้องร้องเรื่องการละเมิดลิขสิทธิ์เกี่ยวกับภาพ กราฟ ข้อความส่วนใดส่วนหนึ่ง หรือ ข้อคิดเห็นที่ปรากฏในผลงาน ให้เป็นความรับผิดชอบของข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) แต่เพียงฝ่ายเดียว และหากข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) ประสงค์ถอนบทความในระหว่างกระบวนการพิจารณาของทางวารสาร ข้าพเจ้าและผู้เขียนร่วม (ถ้ามี) ยินดีรับผิดชอบค่าใช้จ่ายทั้งหมดที่เกิดขึ้นในกระบวนการพิจารณาบทความนั้น”
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