The Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Tenasserim Pine (Pinus latteri Mason) and Benguet Pine (Pinus kesiya Royle ex Gordon) in Thailand

Abstract

Pine species have evolved extensively and been widely used as pioneer plants since they first emerged during the Mesozoic era. However, their natural populations are becoming increasingly rare under the global climate change scenario. These changes in native habitats could lead to their decline, particularly among pine species. Only two pine species are found In Thailand: Tenasserim pine (Pinus latteri Mason) and Benguet pine (Pinus kesiya Royle ex Gordon). In this study, we focused on the impacts of climate change on the distribution of both species as a case study to determine suitable habitats and assess potential future changes. Data related to the presence of Tenasserim and Benguet pines, along with environmental factors–including physical, biological, and climatic variables–were used to develop a distribution model using MaxEnt software (version 3.3.3k). The results indicated that the current suitable areas for Tenasserim pine and Benguet pine are 72,198 km² and 59,703 km², respectively. Under a best–case climate change scenario (SSP 1–2.6), suitable areas for Tenasserim pine and Benguet pine are projected to increase by 6.62% and 8.95%, respectively. Under the worst–case scenario (SSP 8–5.8), suitable areas for Tenasserim pine would still increase by 3.50%, whereas those for Benguet pine would decrease by 2.68%. These results demonstrate the impact of climate change on the distribution of both pine species, with potential habitat loss for Benguet pine. This reduction could lead to the invasion of other species, ultimately affecting the overall health of the ecosystem. To ensure the continued existence of Benguet pine in the protected areas of Thailand, authorities should develop and implement a management plan for forest restoration in suitable areas. Effective execution of such a plan would improve the chances of survival of the Benguet pine.