การเปรียบเทียบตัวแบบพยากรณ์ราคาโคเนื้อ

Abstract

Abstract

The objective of this study was to compare the four cattle prices forecasting models which obtained from Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, and damped trend exponential smoothing method. The cattle prices data gathered from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics during January, 2005 to December, 2017 of 156 values were used and divided into 2 sets. The first set had 150 values from January, 2005 to June, 2017 for constructing the forecasting models. The second set had 6 values from July to December, 2017 for comparing accuracy of the forecasts via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. Research findings indicated that for all forecasting methods that had been studied, the most accurate method was Holt’s exponential smoothing method and the forecasting model was  where m represents the number of periods to forecast ahead with the starting value of July, 2017 (m = 1). 

Keywords: cattle; Box-Jenkins method; exponential smoothing method; mean absolute percentage error (MAPE); root mean squared error (RMSE).