Projection Impact of Climate Change in the Future under Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios on Rice in-Season Production in Northeastern Thailand
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the projected impact and risks of climate change on in-season rice production in Northeastern Thailand, via production function analysis with Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimators. The analysis was based on panel data from 19 provinces in the region, covering the period from 2002 to 2020. The results of the study showed that area harvested, trend time, and cumulative precipitation had a positive effect on the yield of in-season rice yields, and it was a statistically significant risk-decreasing factor for rice production variance. On the other hand, average temperature and variance of the average temperature negatively affect the production of in-season rice yields, and there was a statistically significant increase in the risk of variance in rice production. The results of the numerical simulation found that in the 2030s and 2050s, the effects of climate change will cause yields to decrease by 1.470 percent and 2.003 percent, respectively, causing production losses of 8,049.72 tons, equivalent to economic value. 74.41 million baht and 10,973.34, representing an economic value of 101.44 million baht. This work is only a presentation of the impacts of climate change and a projection of future impacts. As an impact result, farmers and policymakers should have good practices for rice cultivation that are consistent with climate change in order to deal with future problems in a sustainable way.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
References
Antle, J. M. 1983. Testing the Stochastic Structure of Production: A Flexible Moment-Based Approach. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 1(3): 192-201. Available: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1983.10509339.
Antle, J. M. and A. Havenner. 1983. Formulating and Estimating Dynamic Stochastic Production Models. UC Davis ARE Working Papers. Available: https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.225711.
Baethgen, W., J. Hansen, A. Ines, J. Jones, H. Meinke and P. Steduto. 2008. Contributions of Agricultural Systems Modeling to Weather Index Insurance. Article.
Battese, G. E., A. N. Rambaldi and G. H. Wan. 1997. A Stochastic Frontier Production Function with Flexible Risk Properties. Journal of Productivity Analysis 8(3): 269-280. Available: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007755604744.
Boogaard, H., J. Schubert, A. De Wit, J. Lazebnik, R. Hutjes and G. Van der Grijn. 2020. Agrometeorological indicators from 1979 to present derived from reanalysis. Available: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6c68c9bb. (June 21, 2023)
Jatuporn, C. and K. Takeuchi. 2022. Assessing the impact of climate change on the agricultural economy in Thailand: an empirical study using panel data analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 30(1): 8123-8132. Available: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-22743-0.
Just, R. E. and R. D. Pope. 1978. Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications. Journal of Econometrics 7(1): 67-86. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(78)90006-4.
Just, R. E. and R. D. Pope. 1979. Production function estimation and related risk considerations. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61(2): 276-284. Available: https://doi.org/10.2307/1239732.
Komarek, A. M., A. De Pinto and V. H. Smith. 2020. A review of types of risks in agriculture: What we know and what we need to know. Agricultural Systems 178(1): 102738. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2019.102738.
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. 2023. Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series. Available: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series (January 24, 2023).
Pakeechai, K., N. Sinnarong, K. Autchariyapanitkul and P. Supapunt. 2020. The impacts of climate change factors on rice production and climate-smart agriculture in the Watershed areas of central Thailand. RMUTSB Academic Journal (Humanities and Social Sciences) 5(2): 196-218. [in Thai]
Puphoung, S., N. Sinnarong, K. Autchariyapanitkul and K. Satienpirakul. 2019. Impacts of climate change on rice yield in the north region. Graduate School Journal CRRU 12(2): 119-132. [in Thai]
Sinnarong, N. 2023. Economics of climate change. Faculty of Economics. Maejo University, Chiang Mai. [in Thai]
Sinnarong, N., C. C. Chen, B. McCarl and B. L. Tran. 2019. Estimating the potential effects of climate change on rice production in Thailand. Paddy and Water Environment 17(1): 1-9. Available: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-019-00755-w.
Sinnarong, N., S. Kuson, W. Nunthasen, S. Puphoung and V. Souvannasouk. 2022. The potential risks of climate change and weather index insurance scheme for Thailand's economic crop production. Environmental Challenges 8(1): 100575. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envc.2022.100575.
World Bank. 2022. Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Available: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org (April 21, 2023)
Yu, Y., J. S. Clark, Q. Tian and F. Yan. 2022. Rice yield response to climate and price policy in high-latitude regions of China. Food Security 14(5): 1143-1157. Available: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01253-w.
