Model for forecasting the export volume of frozen shrimp
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Abstract
The purpose of this study was to construct the model for forecasting the export volume of frozen shrimp by using data gathered from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics during January 2011 to August 2019. The data of 104 values were used and divided into 2 sets. The first set with 96 values from January 2011 to December 2018 was used for constructing the forecasting models by Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method, and combined forecasting method. The second set with 8 values from January to August 2019 was used for comparing the accuracy of the forecasting model via the lowest mean absolute percentage error. The findings indicated that the most accurate method was the Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method.
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Published manuscript are the rights of their original owners and RMUTSB Academic Journal. The manuscript content belongs to the authors' idea, it is not the opinion of the journal's committee and not the responsibility of Rajamangala University of Technology Suvarnabhumi
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