A Comparison of the Forecasting for the Sale Price of Gold Bar

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to study and compare the forecasting methods for the sale price of gold bar. The data was gathered from website Gold price today during January, 2012 to December, 2019 of 96 values which were used and separated into 2 groups. The first group contained 93 values from January, 2012 to September, 2019 for comparing and searching for forecasting models. There were forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins, Single exponential smoothing, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, and Damped trend exponential smoothing method. The second set had 3 values from October, 2019 to December, 2019 for comparing and finding the most suitable forecasting method via criteria of the lowest root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. Then the selected suitable method was used to determine the most suitable forecasting period the lowest mean absolute percentage error was used as the criteria of each period. The result indicated that Box-Jenkins method was the best method. It was implemented for forecasting 1, 3 and 5 months. Showed that the method was suitable for advance 3 months.