Monthly rainfall amount forecasting for agriculture by statistical forecasting techniques in Maha Sarakham Province
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Abstract
The objectives of this research are to study the monthly rainfall amount for agriculture in Maha Sarakham Province using the data obtained from Upper Northeastern Meteorological Center employing the use of statistical forecasting techniques and comparing the appropriate model of monthly rainfall by two (2) models, namely the Holt - Winter method and the Box-Jenkins method. The comparison was considered by mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In this study, we use monthly rainfall data in Maha sarakham Province collected from January 2012 to December 2021, totaling 120 for constructing two (2) models. The second set had 10 months from January 2022 to October 2022 from studying the model of monthly rainfall by 2 models for forecasts monthly rainfall data in Maha sarakham Province. The appropriate model for monthly rainfall for agricultural activities in Maha sarakham Province is the Box -Jenkins method with the lowest MAPE of 288.68.
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References
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