Time Series Forecasting Models for Predicting Export Volumes of Thailand’s Ribbed Smoked Sheets
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Abstract
The objectives of this research were to build time series forecasting models for forecasting monthly export volumes of Thailand’s ribbed smoked sheets and to forecast the export volumes of ribbed smoked sheets in the year 2022. Data on export volumes of ribbed smoked sheets were from the Office of Agricultural Economics from January, 2011 to October, 2021 with a total of 130 values. The data were separated into 2 sets. The first set of data from January, 2011 to October, 2020 with a total of 118 values were used to build time series forecasting models using 3 techniques including the Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method and Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method. The second set of data from November, 2020 to October, 2021 with a total of 12 values were used to assess the accuracy of the time series forecasting models by using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as an assessment criterion. The results showed that the most accurate model was the one built from Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method with the lowest MAPE of 11.33%. When using the most accurate model to predict monthly exports of Thai ribbed smoked sheets during November, 2021 to October, 2022 the highest export volume was found in December, 2021 with the amount of 53,910,618.14 kilograms and the lowest export volume was found in June, 2022 with the amount of 38,888,915.11 kilograms.
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บทความที่ได้รับการตีพิมพ์เป็นลิขสิทธิ์ของ วารสารวิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี มหาวิทยาลัยอุบลราชธานี
ข้อความที่ปรากฏในบทความแต่ละเรื่องในวารสารวิชาการเล่มนี้เป็นความคิดเห็นส่วนตัวของผู้เขียนแต่ละท่านไม่เกี่ยวข้องกับมหาวิทยาลัยอุบลราชธานี และคณาจารย์ท่านอื่นๆในมหาวิทยาลัยฯ แต่อย่างใด ความรับผิดชอบองค์ประกอบทั้งหมดของบทความแต่ละเรื่องเป็นของผู้เขียนแต่ละท่าน หากมีความผิดพลาดใดๆ ผู้เขียนแต่ละท่านจะรับผิดชอบบทความของตนเองแต่ผู้เดียว
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