Forecasting Swine Price in Thailand Using Time Series Method

Abstract

The objectives of this research are (1) to study the situation of swine production, marketing, and trade in Thailand, and (2) to forecast the swine price in Thailand from October 2021 to December 2022. The quantitative research is employed using monthly time series on swine price from January 2007 to September 2021 for a total of 177 months as well as using the time series forecasting based on the Box-Jenkins method or SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s model. The results of the study showed that (1) in 2020, the amount of swine production decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous year as a result of oversupply and epidemic problems of swine production. However, the demand for pork consumption increased by 0.66%, with most of the swine uses for consumption being 84.75% of the total production of domestic swine. In addition, Thailand exports pork and its products to Asian countries including Hong Kong, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos. (2) The most suitable forecasting model is SARIMA (1,0,1)(0,1,1)₁₂. The forecast of swine prices from October 2021 to December 2022 shows that the average price of swine is likely to drop by 5.06%, with the highest price in August 2022 at 72.28. baht/kg, while in December 2021, swine will have the lowest price at 63.22 baht/kg.