Simulating the impact of future changes of climate on sugarcane production systems

Abstract

Agricultural systems is one of the sensitive areas which would be influenced by the projected globalwarming and associated climate change. Despite uncertainties about the precise magnitude of climate change onregional scales, and assessment of the possible impacts of changes in key climatic elements on our agriculturalresources is important for formulating response strategies. In this study, sugarcane crop yields in North andNortheast Thailand under future climate scenarios from the CCAM model are examined. The CCAM modelpredicted that during 2006-2024 the annual rainfall amount of Khon Kaen and Chiang Mai should be increasedaround 20 and 50% as compare to the annual rainfall during 1975-2000. The DSSAT-CANEGRO model predictedsimilar ranges of yield for both locations. In Khon Kaen, U-Thong 2 and K84-200 sugarcane varieties gave a yieldrange of 34-126 and 33-120 Mg ha-1, whereas Chiang Mai area gave a lower yield range, i.e., 22-153 and 22-141 Mgha-1, respectively. However, one should bare in mind the predicted amount of rainfall and the relationship of moreincidents of deseases insect pests.