Test for relationships between provincial socio-agro economic variables and violent incidents in Narathiwat province

Abstract

This study has an objective to test the relationships between provincial socio-agro economic variables and violent incidents in Narathiwat province. Unit root, Co-integration tests, and Granger causality test were used. Data were collected from relevant authorities of Thailand. Unit root test results were found that the provincial socio-agro economic variables and violent incidents variables had a stationary characteristic at different levels of data; some variables are stationary at the basic data level or I(0), and some variables are stationary at the difference of one level or I(1). Then, Co-integration test results to find long-term equilibrium relationships of variables were found that in the short-term, the migration and the real petroleum price variables had significant positively affected the violent incidents in Narathiwat province at confidence level 90%. The Co-integration test indicated that there was no an existence of a long-run equilibrium between the selected provincial socio-agro economic variables and violence incidents. The Granger causality test found that the migration and the real petroleum price variables had significant caused the violent incidents in Narathiwat province at confidence level 95%. The findings of this study can help policymakers to better understand and plan agricultural policies to enhance in effective adaptation to violent incidents.