Forecasting Models for Rubber Production and Export Quantity of Thailand

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop the forecasting models of rubber production and export quantity of Thailand. The statistical methodology consists of four techniques, namely, regression model with seasonal dummy and time trend, Box-Jenkins concepts using SARIMA(p,d,q)(P,D,Q)s, and seasonal exponential smoothing through Holt-Winters additive and multiplicative models. The empirical results found that the regression with seasonal dummy and time trend is the best fitted model based on the lowest value of the RMSE benchmark. In 2016, the prediction of the two time series shows that the production has an increasing rate by 3.47%, but the export quantity has a decreasing rate by 0.31%. The oversupply in rubber market will be seriously occurred as an imbalance between demand and supply in the country. Policymakers, private sector, farmers, entrepreneur and related stakeholders in rubber industry should concern these empirical findings to provide the appropriate policies in order to minimize the risks and enhance the competitiveness of Thailand’s rubber commodity.