Crop production plan using linear programming under fuzzy water constraints in Huai Mae Sot reservoir irrigated areas, Tak province

Abstract

Uncertainty in reservoir water supply in each year affects the land use decision in crop production each season. Water resource is an important variable affecting farmers’ income. The purpose of this study is to find an optimal crop production planning in the Huai Mae Sot reservoir irrigation areas using linear programming under Fuzzy water constraints. The primary data collected from 81 water user households in Huai Mae Sot reservoir irrigation areas. The availability of rainfall and reservoir water supply in last 5 years was collected as the secondary data. The study results indicated that the crops that farmers should grow to maximize their income are different in each situation of different water supplies. In the situation that the reservoir water supply is highest m3,at 15.57 million farmers should grow in-season rice and maize in both rainy and dry seasons to maximize their income at 4.78 million baht. In the situation that reservoir water supply is lowest at 6.73 million m3, farmers should reduce growing in-season rice, maize in the dry season by changing to grow maize in the rainy season as well as cucumber in the dry season to maximize their income at 3.32 million baht. However, these two situations have least possibility compared with the situation that has highest possibility, which is the situation that water supply is 11.65 million m3. In this situation, farmers should grow in-season rice, maize and cucumber to maximize their farm income at 4.29 million baht under limited resources of farmers. The study results can be used as a guideline for optimal land use decision-making under Fuzzy water constraints.