A Model for Forecasting the Export Value of Fresh or Frozen Pineapples in Thailand
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Abstract
The objective of this study is to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the export values of fresh or frozen pineapples in Thailand via the use of statistical methods. The monthly average data, which were gathered from the website of the Office of Agricultural Economics during January 2011 to December 2021 of 132 months were divided into 2 datasets. The first dataset, which consisted of 120 months from January 2011 to December 2020, was used for constructing the forecasting models via the use of 7 statistical methods, namely, Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, and Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method. The second dataset, which consisted of 12 months from January to December 2021, was used for comparing the accuracy of the forecasting model via the lowest mean absolute percentage error. The results indicated that the most accurate method was the simple seasonal exponential smoothing method.
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King Mongkut's Agricultural Journal
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