A Comparison of Forecasting Models of Longan Price

Abstract

The objective of this study was to compare the three forecasting models of longan price; namely Box-Jenkins method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, and combined forecasting method. The longan average price per month was obtained from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics during January, 2005 to November, 2017. There were 155 observations and divide into 2 sets. The first set included 149 observations during January, 2005 to May, 2017 use to construct the forecasting models. The second set had 6 observations during June to November, 2017 use to investigate the most suitable forecasting method via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean squared error. The findings indicated that the combined forecasting method was the most appropriate and the forecasting model was