Forecasting the Export Quantity of Rubber in Thailand

Abstract

The objective of this study was to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the export quantity of rubber in Thailand. The data gathered from the website of the Office of Agricultural Economics from January 2011 to December 2019 of 108 values were used and divided into 2 sets. The first set had 96 values from January 2011 to December 2018 for constructing the forecasting models by Box-Jenkins method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method, and combined forecasting method. The second set had 12 values from January to December 2019 for comparing the accuracy of the forecasts via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error. Research findings indicated that for all forecasting methods that had been studied, the most accurate method was combined forecasting method. The forecast of the export quantity of rubber can be used as a guideline for enhancing the potential of export operators to be able to compete with other countries, as well as a guideline for the government to issue a policy to support rubber exports.