Forecasting of Pepper Export Value

Abstract

The objective of this study is to construct the models for forecasting the value of pepper exports using statistical methods. The monthly average data, which were gathered from the website of the Office of Agricultural Economics during January 2011 to October 2020 of 118 months were divided into 2 datasets. The first dataset, which consisted of 108 months from January 2011 to December 2019 was used for constructing the forecasting models via the use of 7 statistical methods, namely, Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, and Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method. The second dataset, which consisted of 10 months from January to October 2020 was used for comparing the accuracy of the forecasting model via the lowest mean absolute percentage error and root mean square error. The results indicated that the most accurate method was the Box-Jenkins method with the model